俄羅斯市場(chǎng)將迎來大換血

俄羅斯市場(chǎng)將迎來大換血

俄羅斯美國(guó)總統(tǒng)普京2月24日宣布在烏克蘭采用特別軍事行動(dòng)后，美國(guó)、歐盟等國(guó)家大幅度升級(jí)對(duì)俄制裁措施。一系列跨國(guó)企業(yè)宣布離開俄羅斯市場(chǎng)，涉及到貨運(yùn)物流、影片、數(shù)字設(shè)備、服飾、電子商務(wù)等眾多領(lǐng)域。

NIKE、adidas、PUMA、銳步等西方國(guó)家品牌陸續(xù)加入了終斷在俄業(yè)務(wù)的大軍。3月2日晚，全世界第二大服裝零售商、德國(guó)品牌服裝H&M在官方網(wǎng)站公布中止在俄羅斯的全部市場(chǎng)銷售。之后，西班牙盈迪德(Inditex)集團(tuán)公司公布聲明稱，已停止在俄羅斯的交易，關(guān)閉了502家Zara店鋪，并停止了在線銷售。Inditex集團(tuán)旗下有著ZARA、PULL&BEAR、Bershka、Oysho、Massimo Dutti等眾多品牌。西班牙第二大服裝零售商芒果(Mango)表明，也將臨時(shí)關(guān)掉其在俄羅斯的120家店面，第三大服裝集團(tuán)騰達(dá)也做到了相近決定。

（4月底，俄羅斯第二大城市圣彼得堡市市區(qū)的街上，出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)燈牌藝術(shù)創(chuàng)作，它由英文字母“ZAMESTIM”構(gòu)成，每一個(gè)英文字母都相匹配了一個(gè)離去俄羅斯市場(chǎng)的西方國(guó)家知名品牌。）

在西方國(guó)家時(shí)尚運(yùn)動(dòng)品牌專賣店對(duì)俄羅斯拉上卷簾門之時(shí)，俄羅斯運(yùn)動(dòng)服裝市場(chǎng)會(huì)否因此發(fā)生“真空”? 西方國(guó)家公司的“退潮”會(huì)給哪些品牌帶來機(jī)會(huì)?

俄權(quán)威專家覺得，將來取代離開的外國(guó)品牌的，最可能是俄羅斯自身的品牌或中國(guó)的李寧、安踏及土爾其 Kinetix 等國(guó)際品牌。

2021年，我國(guó)變成俄羅斯鞋品進(jìn)口的的引領(lǐng)者。俄羅斯一半左右的國(guó)外鞋類產(chǎn)品來自中國(guó)，總額超出15億美金，出口量幾乎是俄羅斯總產(chǎn)量的兩倍。

據(jù)從俄羅斯咨詢管理公司“萊坊俄羅斯”(Knight Frank Russia)獲知，2022年，只有兩個(gè)外國(guó)品牌進(jìn)到俄羅斯市場(chǎng)，其中包括我國(guó)“李寧”。

李寧、安踏等中國(guó)服裝品牌，具有進(jìn)軍俄羅斯市場(chǎng)的潛力

黑龍江大學(xué)中俄全面戰(zhàn)略協(xié)作省部共建協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心首席教授馬友君接納俄羅斯通訊衛(wèi)星新聞社訪談時(shí)表明，西方國(guó)家封禁有益于發(fā)展中國(guó)家的商品進(jìn)軍俄羅斯市場(chǎng)，而價(jià)廉物美的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品更具有發(fā)展?jié)摿Α２⑶覍?duì)俄制裁的目地之一是徹底擊垮俄羅斯，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)結(jié)束后很有可能不會(huì)馬上撤消這種制裁措施。

rmb支付或變成將來中國(guó)俄羅斯經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的主要付款方式

權(quán)威專家表明，目前可知，現(xiàn)在中國(guó)在俄羅斯市場(chǎng)市場(chǎng)銷售的主要是日常生活用品和紡織產(chǎn)品，以民營(yíng)企業(yè)、股份制公司或非官方企業(yè)為主，這類公司并沒有在歐美等西方國(guó)家制裁之列。從未來加強(qiáng)合作的視角看來，對(duì)俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁導(dǎo)致全世界大部分商品價(jià)格增漲，必定會(huì)加重全球金融危機(jī)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。現(xiàn)階段，李寧、安踏等國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌在俄羅斯設(shè)立的門店較少。因而，除開考慮俄羅斯市場(chǎng)有可能進(jìn)一步增加對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的需求外，還有待觀查俄羅斯市場(chǎng)的支付能力是否會(huì)遭受經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的影響。

馬友方說：“依據(jù)科學(xué)研究，我國(guó)在俄羅斯市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)品約1/3使用美金，1/3使用人民幣，1/3使用盧布。將來使用美金付款的概率顯而易見并不大，僅剩人民幣和盧布可以使用。可是盧布匯率起伏比較大，因此人民幣支付或?qū)⒆兂蓪韮蓢?guó)之間經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的主要付款方式。”

自然，國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌在進(jìn)到俄羅斯市場(chǎng)時(shí)也必須掌握限度，一方面不可以過多侵占俄羅斯市場(chǎng)；另一方面還要特別注意防止出口假冒偽劣產(chǎn)品，確保在俄羅斯市場(chǎng)的良性相互合作。

河南圣艷紡織宣傳部

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The Russian market will usher in a big change

The United States, the European Union and other countries have significantly upgraded their sanctions against Russia after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the adoption of special military operations in Ukraine on February 24. A series of multinational enterprises announced to leave the Russian market, involving freight logistics, films, digital equipment, clothing, e-commerce and many other fields.

Nike, Adidas, puma, Reebok and other Western brands have successively joined the army that has terminated its business in Russia. On the evening of March 2, h&m, the world's second largest clothing retailer and German brand clothing, announced on its official website that it would suspend all market sales in Russia. Later, Spain's INDITEX group announced that it had stopped trading in Russia, closed 502 Zara stores and stopped online sales. INDITEX group has many brands such as Zara, pull&bear, Bershka, oysho, Massimo dutti, etc. Mango, Spain's second largest clothing retailer, said it would also temporarily close its 120 stores in Russia, and Tengda, the third largest clothing group, made a similar decision.

(at the end of April, on the streets of St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia, there appeared a lamp board art creation, which was composed of the English letter "zamestim", and each English letter matched a well-known Western brand that left the Russian market.)

When western fashion and sports brand stores pull down the rolling shutter door to Russia, will there be a "vacuum" in the Russian sportswear market? Which brands will the "ebb tide" of Companies in western countries bring opportunities?

Russian authoritative experts believe that in the future, Russian brands or international brands such as Li Ning, Anta and Turkey kinetix in China are most likely to replace foreign brands that leave.

In 2021, China will become the leader of Russian footwear import. About half of the foreign footwear products in Russia come from China, with a total amount of more than 1.5 billion US dollars, and the export volume is almost twice the total output of Russia.

According to the Russian consulting management company "Knight Frank Russia", in 2022, only two foreign brands entered the Russian market, including China's "Li Ning".

Chinese clothing brands such as Li Ning and Anta have the potential to enter the Russian market

Ma Youjun, chief professor of the China Russia comprehensive strategic cooperation provincial and ministerial collaborative innovation center of Heilongjiang University, said in an interview with Russia's telesat news agency that western countries ban goods that are beneficial to developing countries to enter the Russian market, while Chinese products that are cheap and good have more development potential. And one of the purposes of sanctions against Russia is to completely defeat Russia. It is likely that such sanctions will not be withdrawn immediately after the war.

RMB payment may become the main payment method for China Russia economic and trade relations in the future

According to authoritative experts, at present, China's sales in the Russian market are mainly daily necessities and textile products, mainly private enterprises, joint-stock companies or unofficial enterprises, which are not sanctioned by western countries such as Europe and the United States. From the perspective of strengthening cooperation in the future, the economic sanctions against Russia will lead to the increase of most commodity prices in the world, which will certainly increase the risk rate of the global financial crisis. At this stage, domestic brands such as Li Ning and Anta have few stores in Russia and are expected to enter the Russian market in the later stage. It is worth noting that in addition to considering that the Russian market may further increase the demand for Chinese products, it remains to be seen whether the payment capacity of the Russian market will be affected by the economic downturn.

Ma Youfang said, "according to scientific research, about one-third of our products in the Russian market use US dollars, one-third use RMB, and one-third use rubles. The probability of using US dollars for payment in the future is obviously not large, and only RMB and rubles can be used. However, the ruble exchange rate fluctuates greatly, so RMB payment may become the main payment method in the future economic and trade relations between the two countries."

Naturally, domestic brands must also grasp the limits when entering the Russian market. On the one hand, they cannot occupy the Russian market too much; On the other hand, special attention should be paid to preventing the export of fake and shoddy products and ensuring benign mutual cooperation in the Russian market.